| Symptomatic Illnesses | Medical Visits | Hospitalizations | Deaths | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Estimate | 95% U I | Estimate | 95% U I | Estimate | 95% U I | Estimate | 95% U I |
| 2010-2011 | 21,000,000 | (20,000,000 – 25,000,000) | 10,000,000 | (9,300,000 – 12,000,000) | 290,000 | (270,000 – 350,000) | 37,000 | (32,000 – 51,000) |
| 2011-2012 | 9,300,000 | (8,700,000 – 12,000,000) | 4,300,000 | (4,000,000 – 5,600,000) | 140,000 | (130,000 – 190,000) | 12,000 | (11,000 – 23,000) |
| 2012-2013 | 34,000,000 | (32,000,000 – 38,000,000) | 16,000,000 | (15,000,000 – 18,000,000) | 570,000 | (530,000 – 680,000) | 43,000 | (37,000 – 57,000) |
| 2013-2014 | 30,000,000 | (28,000,000 – 33,000,000) | 13,000,000 | (12,000,000 – 15,000,000) | 350,000 | (320,000 – 390,000) | 38,000 | (33,000 – 50,000) |
| 2014-2015 | 30,000,000 | (29,000,000 – 33,000,000) | 14,000,000 | (13,000,000 – 16,000,000) | 590,000 | (540,000 – 680,000) | 51,000 | (44,000 – 64,000) |
| 2015-2016 | 24,000,000 | (20,000,000 – 33,000,000) | 11,000,000 | (9,000,000 – 15,000,000) | 280,000 | (220,000 – 480,000) | 23,000 | (17,000 – 35,000) |
| 2016-2017 | 29,000,000 | (25,000,000 – 45,000,000) | 14,000,000 | (11,000,000 – 23,000,000) | 500,000 | (380,000 – 860,000) | 38,000 | (29,000 – 61,000) |
| Preliminary estimates* | Estimate | 95% UI | Estimate | 95% UI | Estimate | 95% UI | Estimate | 95% UI |
| 2017-2018* | 45,000,000 | (39,000,000 – 58,000,000) | 21,000,000 | (18,000,000 – 27,000,000) | 810,000 | (620,000 – 1,400,000) | 61,000 | (46,000 – 95,000) |
| 2018-2019* | 35,520,883 | (31,323,881 – 44,995,691) | 16,520,350 | (14,322,767 – 21,203,231) | 490,561 | (387,283 – 766,472) | 34,157 | (26,339 – 52,664) |
U.S. vehicle deaths topped 40,000 in 2017, National Safety Council estimates.
US population is nearly 330m. So % of Symptomatic Illnesses in 17-18 = 45/330 =14%; about 1 out of 7. So infected proportion (adding asymptomatic cases) will be higher.
"...suggested that on average, about 8% of the U.S. population gets sick from
flu each season, with a range of between 3% and 11%, depending on the season.
Why is the 3% to 11% estimate different from the previously cited 5% to
20% range?
The commonly cited 5% to 20% estimate was based on a study that examined both
symptomatic and asymptomatic influenza illness, which means it also looked at
people who may have had the flu but never knew it because they didn’t have any
symptoms. The 3% to 11% range is an estimate of the proportion of people who
have symptomatic flu illness."
Number of deaths (I think is cause of death so excluding those indirectly died from flu but directly died from other respiratory diseases or from other causes of death): 6,515 (src: CDC)
Indonesia: From May 2013 to April 2016, there were 1527 SARI cases enrolled, of whom 1392 (91%) had specimens tested and 199 (14%) were influenza-positive. The overall estimated annual incidence of influenza-associated SARI ranged from 13 to 19 per 100 000 population. Incidence was highest in children aged 0-4 years (82-114 per 100 000 population), followed by children 5-14 years (22-36 per 100 000 population). src
Note: Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI)
2020-02-04
從2019年冬天至2020上半年的這個流感季，至少已經在台灣造成56人死亡，在美國更導致上萬人死亡。
src
2017/10/1 - 2018/1/15:
https://www.cdc.gov.tw/File/Get/BQMb11XcaRez8V4xJgmO4g - only 17 dead.
2018/03/28:
因猜錯疫苗病毒株而人心惶惶的流感疫情，由於上周出現5例死亡病例，使得本流行季累計死亡病例「破百」為104人、接近去年55例的2倍，而感染保護力有限的B型流感死亡高達8成6。
近7年流感季同一時期死亡病例，目前以2015至2016年流行季381人最多，其次是2013至14年的136人、排名第3是2011至12年的130人，今年流行季與2011至12年同是猜錯病毒株而引發B型肆虐，雖然死亡人數小於當年，但是本季已有接種疫苗15人死亡、2011至2012年為14人。 src
Time to drop the Chinese COVID-19 conspiracy
如何看待世卫组织表示「新冠病毒最初分布在全球各地，武汉只是发现地」？
当初是海鲜市场爆发，因为海鲜市场里兼卖野味，根据2002年的经验，很自然的又认为是野生动物病毒。轰轰烈烈地搞了扑杀特种养殖运动，竹鼠、蛇…… 后来，北京新发地、大连冷库、天津后厨、还有诸多搬运工……现在看来，通过冷链水产输入的可能性更大。
“该病毒在武汉的海鲜市场被发现”，这个也是我一直在提的问题。关于病毒的溯源工作，我一直在关注，也在知乎上跟大家分享。
针对世卫组织官员的发言，主要包含了两部分的信息，我们来分析下。
"越来越多的信息表明，新冠病毒最初分布在全球各地。研究人员最近在蝙蝠体内发现了这种病毒，我们还在不同的地方看到了其他潜在的病毒源头。"
这里提到的研究应该就是我前几天文章里提到的柬埔寨和日本等多地发现的新冠病毒的新的类新冠病毒序列，我还是猜测，携带这种病毒的蝙蝠的生存地更大的可能是在东南亚地区的雨林里，比如马来西亚，老挝，柬埔寨等这些国家。
大家如果对这个最新进展感兴趣可以看我下边的文章。
极萨学院冷哲：新冠病毒溯源的最新进展：日本和柬埔寨发现新冠病毒近亲我现在猜测WHO可能已经拿到了柬埔寨的测序结果，从而得出的一些结论，当然这只是一个猜测，测序组装结果相信很快就能公开，到时候我们继续看就好，即便这次找到的相似度没有超过94%，但我相信这样持续的找下去一定能找到99%的源头，这是一个持续的时间问题。
"确定世界首例传染病病例，是所有流行病学调查的一个重要方面。“（新冠病毒）可能有不止一个首例病例，因为该疾病很可能源于好几种动物的传播。"极萨学院冷哲：科研人员发现去年9月意大利就有新冠病毒传播的关键证据
对于最早的感染病人的追踪也一直是各国科学家都在推进事情，而从目前的各国发表的研究成果来看，这个时间可能会比我们固有的认为19年11月或者12月早很多。比如上边这篇提到的意大利发现的去年9月的一些证据，以及全球各地发现的相关证据，都指向我们是在武汉第一次发现了这个病毒。
甚至传播渠道都可能跟我们之前猜测的通过野生动物的传播的途径不同，我现在高度怀疑是通过冷链海鲜等途径传播的。这个病毒很可能在11月或者12月在武汉爆发之前就已经在全球有一定的传播量了，只是中国基于SARS体系的训练下，对于未知性肺炎的敏感度非常之高，才能在短时间内进行发现并测序。
但如果把锅甩给第一个发现并报告问题的人，这显然是非常错误的，我现在认为，全世界都需要感谢中国，如果没有中国的积极反应，这个病的发现可能会被进一步的延迟，很多人会死的不明不白。
12/11/2020 Fri - Food and Drug Administration's emergency use authorization issued -> distribution of vaccine begins.
12/12/2020 Sat - In an emergency meeting Saturday, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) voted to recommend the first COVID-19 vaccine for use for people 16 or older in the U.S. Once the recommendation is approved by CDC director Robert Redfield, the agency will publish it as official guidance. Normally, this step would take place before distribution begins. However, the parent agency, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), decided to move ahead with distribution ahead of the CDC committee's vote.
While, the FDA's assessment focused on the vaccine's safety and efficacy standards, the CDC's advisers also considered the practical implications of administering vaccines. At an emergency meeting Friday, prior to authorization, the CDC committee peppered Pfizer representatives with questions about the frequency of side effects and potential adverse reactions to receiving the vaccine, which could impact how vaccines get distributed in a workplace.
*Both FDA and CDC are under HHS.